Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.4 percent in the past Iranian calendar year 1400 (ended on March 20), according to the Central Bank of Iran (CBI).
The CBI put the GDP growth at 3.9 percent excluding oil.
Back in mid-June, the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) had put the country’s GDP growth at 4.3 percent including oil, and at 3.5 percent excluding oil in the previous year.
As reported by the center, based on the fixed prices in the Iranian year 1390 (ended on March 19, 2012), the country’s GDP stood at 7.569 quadrillion rials (about $27.725 billion) including the oil sector, and at 6.511 quadrillion rials (about $23.849 billion) excluding the oil sector in the past year, while the figures were 7.254 quadrillion rials (about $26.571 billion) and 6.289 quadrillion rials (about $23.036 billion), respectively, in 1399.
The SCI said that the agriculture sector experienced a negative growth of 3.7 percent, while the industries and mines sector grew six percent, and the services sector’s growth stood at 4.5 percent in the previous year.
According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report released on June 7, Iranian economy is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2022, while the average global economic growth is seen at 2.9 percent in the said year.
“Output in the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2022, boosted by the waning of the pandemic and higher oil prices,” the bank said in the report.
“Iran’s economy continues its gradual recovery that started in mid-2020, driven by the oil sector and services. However, water and energy shortages led to a contraction of the agriculture and industry sectors,” the report said.
A recovery in Iran’s oil and service sectors (11.7 and 6.5 percent growth, respectively) – following a return of global and domestic activity after the start of the pandemic – led to a five percent year on year growth in late 2021-early 2022, the bank said.
However, the agriculture sector contracted by 2.1 percent due to drought and energy blackouts. On the demand side, a 3.4 percent expansion in consumption drove GDP growth as activity returned closer to pre-pandemic levels. Imports growth (25.5 percent) outweighed the pick-up in exports (5.4 percent), and investment also declined (5.2 percent).
The bank puts Iran’s economic growth at 4.1 percent in 2021 and about 3.4 percent in 2020.
World Bank which had estimated Iran’s inflation rate at 40.1 percent for 2021 believes that it would fall to 37.6 percent this year and 34.8 percent next year.
“Higher projected oil prices in the outlook period and growth in oil export volumes considering the tighter global oil market are forecast to curb fiscal pressures. However, high expenditure growth due to increasing wage bills and pension spending is projected to keep the fiscal balance in a deficit of 3.8 percent of GDP in 2022-24.” the bank said in its report.
